National action plans enumerate many interventions as potential strategies to reduce the burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, knowledge of the benefits achievable by specific approaches is needed to inform policy making, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with substantial AMR burden and low health-care system capacity. In a modelling analysis, we estimated that improving infection prevention and control programmes in LMIC health-care settings could prevent at least 337 000 (95% CI 250 200-465 200) AMR-associated deaths annually. Ensuring universal access to high-quality water, sanitation, and hygiene services would prevent 247 800 (160 000-337 800) AMR-associated deaths and paediatric vaccines 181 500 (153 400-206 800) AMR-associated deaths, from both direct prevention of resistant infections and reductions in antibiotic consumption. These estimates translate to prevention of 7·8% (5·6-11·0) of all AMR-associated mortality in LMICs by infection prevention and control, 5·7% (3·7-8·0) by water, sanitation, and hygiene, and 4·2% (3·4-5·1) by vaccination interventions. Despite the continuing need for research and innovation to overcome limitations of existing approaches, our findings indicate that reducing global AMR burden by 10% by the year 2030 is achievable with existing interventions. Our results should guide investments in public health interventions with the greatest potential to reduce AMR burden.

Rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health crisis for countries of all economic levels, alongside the broader challenge of access to antibiotics. As a result, development goals for child survival, healthy ageing, poverty reduction, and food security are at risk. Preserving antimicrobial effectiveness, a global public good, requires political will, targets, accountability frameworks, and funding. The upcoming second high-level meeting on AMR at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in September, 2024, is evidence of political interest in addressing the problem of AMR, but action on targets, accountability, and funding, absent from the 2016 UNGA resolution, is needed. We propose ambitious yet achievable global targets for 2030 (relative to a prepandemic 2019 baseline): a 10% reduction in mortality from AMR; a 20% reduction in inappropriate human antibiotic use; and a 30% reduction in inappropriate animal antibiotic use. Given national variation in current levels of antibiotic use, these goals (termed the 10-20-30 by 2030) should be met within a framework of universal access to effective antibiotics. The WHO Access, Watch, Reserve (AWARE) system can be used to define, monitor, and evaluate appropriate levels of antibiotic use and access. Some countries should increase access to narrow-spectrum, safe, and affordable (Access) antibiotics, whereas others should discourage the inappropriate use of broader-spectrum (Watch) and last-resort (Reserve) antibiotics; AWARE targets should use a risk-based, burden-adjusted approach. Improved infection prevention and control, access to clean water and sanitation, and vaccination coverage can offset the selection effects of increased antibiotic use in low-income settings. To ensure accountability and global scientific guidance and consensus, we call for the establishment of the Independent Panel on Antimicrobial Access and Resistance and the support of leaders from low-income and middle-income countries.

The increasing number of bacterial infections globally that do not respond to any available antibiotics indicates a need to invest in-and ensure access to-new antibiotics, vaccines, and diagnostics. The traditional model of drug development, which depends on substantial revenues to motivate investment, is no longer economically viable without push and pull incentives. Moreover, drugs developed through these mechanisms are unlikely to be affordable for all patients in need, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. New, publicly funded models based on public-private partnerships could support investment in antibiotics and novel alternatives, and lower patients' out-of-pocket costs, making drugs more accessible. Cost reductions can be achieved with public goods, such as clinical trial networks and platform-based quality assurance, manufacturing, and product development support. Preserving antibiotic effectiveness relies on accurate and timely diagnosis; however scaling up diagnostics faces technological, economic, and behavioural challenges. New technologies appeared during the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is a need for a deeper understanding of market, physician, and consumer behaviour to improve the use of diagnostics in patient management. Ensuring sustainable access to antibiotics also requires infection prevention. Vaccines offer the potential to prevent infections from drug-resistant pathogens, but funding for vaccine development has been scarce in this context. The High-Level Meeting of the UN General Assembly in 2024 offers an opportunity to rethink how research and development can be reoriented to serve disease management, prevention, patient access, and antibiotic stewardship.

Each year, an estimated 7·7 million deaths are attributed to bacterial infections, of which 4.95 million are associated with drug-resistant pathogens, and 1·27 million are caused by bacterial pathogens resistant to the antibiotics available. Access to effective antibiotics when indicated prolongs life, reduces disability, reduces health-care expenses, and enables access to other life-saving medical innovations. Antimicrobial resistance undoes these benefits and is a major barrier to attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals, including targets for newborn survival, progress on healthy ageing, and alleviation of poverty. Adverse consequences from antimicrobial resistance are seen across the human life course in both health-care-associated and community-associated infections, as well as in animals and the food chain. The small set of effective antibiotics has narrowed, especially in resource-poor settings, and people who are very young, very old, and severely ill are particularly susceptible to resistant infections. This paper, the first in a Series on the challenge of antimicrobial resistance, considers the global scope of the problem and how it should be measured. Robust and actionable data are needed to drive changes and inform effective interventions to contain resistance. Surveillance must cover all geographical regions, minimise biases towards hospital-derived data, and include non-human niches.