244. Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation.
作者: Andrew Hultgren.;Tamma Carleton.;Michael Delgado.;Diana R Gergel.;Michael Greenstone.;Trevor Houser.;Solomon Hsiang.;Amir Jina.;Robert E Kopp.;Steven B Malevich.;Kelly E McCusker.;Terin Mayer.;Ishan Nath.;James Rising.;Ashwin Rode.;Jiacan Yuan.
来源: Nature. 2025年642卷8068期644-652页
Climate change threatens global food systems1, but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown and controversial2. Even within the well-studied context of US agriculture, some analyses argue that adaptation will be widespread and climate damages small3,4, whereas others conclude that adaptation will be limited and losses severe5,6. Scenario-based analyses indicate that adaptation should have notable consequences on global agricultural productivity7-9, but there has been no systematic study of how extensively real-world producers actually adapt at the global scale. Here we empirically estimate the impact of global producer adaptations using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 regions, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 1014 kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P < 0.001). We project that adaptation and income growth alleviate 23% of global losses in 2050 and 34% at the end of the century (6% and 12%, respectively; moderate-emissions scenario), but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. In contrast to analyses of other outcomes that project the greatest damages to the global poor10,11, we find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions losses are also substantial. These results indicate a scale of innovation, cropland expansion or further adaptation that might be necessary to ensure food security in a changing climate.
245. Vertically stacked monolithic perovskite colour photodetectors.
作者: Sergey Tsarev.;Daria Proniakova.;Xuqi Liu.;Erfu Wu.;Gebhard J Matt.;Kostiantyn Sakhatskyi.;Lorenzo L A Ferraresi.;Radha Kothandaraman.;Fan Fu.;Ivan Shorubalko.;Sergii Yakunin.;Maksym V Kovalenko.
来源: Nature. 2025年642卷8068期592-598页
Modern colour image sensors face challenges in further improving sensitivity and image quality because of inherent limitations in light utilization efficiency1. A major factor contributing to these limitations is the use of passive optical filters, which absorb and dissipate a substantial amount of light, thereby reducing the efficiency of light capture2. On the contrary, active optical filtering in Foveon-type vertically stacked architectures still struggles to deliver optimal performance owing to their lack of colour selectivity, making them inefficient for precise colour imaging3. Here we introduce an innovative architecture for colour sensor arrays that uses multilayer monolithically stacked lead halide perovskite thin-film photodetectors. Perovskite bandgap tunability4 is utilized to selectively absorb the visible light spectrum's red, green and blue regions, eliminating the need for colour filters. External quantum efficiencies of 50%, 47% and 53% are demonstrated for the red, green and blue channels, respectively, as well as a colour accuracy of 3.8% in ΔELab outperforming the state-of-the-art colour-filter array and Foveon-type photosensors. The image sensor design improves light utilization in colour sensors and paves the way for the next generation of highly sensitive, artefact-free images with enhanced colour fidelity.
246. Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems.
作者: Dongsheng Zheng.;Xizhe Yan.;Dan Tong.;Steven J Davis.;Ken Caldeira.;Yuanyuan Lin.;Yaqin Guo.;Jingyun Li.;Peng Wang.;Liying Ping.;Shijie Feng.;Yang Liu.;Jing Cheng.;Deliang Chen.;Kebin He.;Qiang Zhang.
来源: Nature. 2025年
Climate change may amplify the frequency and severity of supply-demand mismatches in future power systems with high shares of wind and solar energy1,2. Here, we use a dispatch optimization model to assess potential increases in hourly costs associated with such climate-intensified gaps under fixed, high penetrations of wind and solar generation. We further explore various strategies to enhance system resilience in the face of future climate change. We find that extreme periods-defined as hours in the upper decile of hourly costs (i.e., the most-costly 10% of hours)-are likely to become more costly in the future in most countries, mainly due to the increased need for investments in flexible energy capacity. For example, under the SSP126 scenario, 47 countries that together account for approximately 43.5% of global future electricity generation are projected to experience more than a 5% increase in average hourly costs during extreme periods, with the largest reaching up to 23.7%. Promisingly, the risk of rising costs could be substantially mitigated through tailored, country-specific strategies involving the coordinated implementation of multiple measures to address supply-demand imbalances and enhance system flexibility. Our findings provide critical insights for building future climate-resilient power systems while reducing system costs.
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